What the Doctor Ordered

Steven Dutch, Professor Emeritus, Natural and Applied Sciences, Universityof Wisconsin-Green Bay

Overview

Chapter covers period 1750-1900, during which technologyevolved rapidly. As a result there are innumerable interconnections betweendisciplines, making for a very complex tale. However, four main threads can beidentified:

How Disease Survives

Ancient and Medieval Medicine

Circulation of the blood

William Harvey, 1628

Medicine about 1800 

Bore a striking resemblance to what wenow call “holistic”

Only problem: it didn’t work

Who’s a “Doctor?”

Hospitals

Philosophy meets medicine

Wolfgang Rau (1764) andJohann Peter Frank (1790): national health as an economic resource.

John Locke

Immanuel Kant

Friedrich von Schelling 1805, Naturphilosophie

Effect of philosophy on medicine

The French Revolution

Effects on Medicine

Separating the Patient from the Process

Statistics

Some simple concepts in statistics

Multiple events

A Few Common Statistical Fallacies

Confusing order and probability. There’s one chance 1n1024 of ten coin flips coming up HHHHHHHHHH. There’s an equal chance of thesequence TTHTHHHTTH coming up. To the coin, one is no more “random” than theother.

Long runs do not make an event less probable. If you flip50 heads in a row, the odds of heads on the next flip are the same as always: 50per cent. The coin has no memory (but I’d check it for bias if I were you!)

Long negative runs do not make an event more probable. Justbecause a number hasn’t turned up in the lottery in a while doesn’t meanit’s “due.”

Spurious patterns: probably the basis of all otherstatistical fallacies. We look for order even when it’s not there. Gambling“systems” are mostly based on this fallacy. The Indians are using it to winback North America.

Clustering: a special type of spurious pattern. Planecrashes and celebrity deaths come in threes … and ones, twos, fours, etc.Princess Diana, fashion designer Gianni Versace and Mother Teresa all diedwithin a short time of each other: a classic cluster. Then John Denver had thebad manners to crash his plane. Oh well.

Clusters don’t make events more or less probable. It isno riskier and no safer to fly after a rash of plane crashes.

After-the-fact probabilities. Almost everything thathappens in life is incredibly improbable, except that some sequence of events has to happen. Calculating the probabilityof a series of past events having happened makes sense only if you calculate thelikelihood of all the other outcomes.A series of events may have only one chance in a billion of happening, but ifthere are a billion other equally likely (or unlikely) outcomes, it’s notremarkable at all.

Treating non-random events as chance events. The odds offinding 50 given people in a room by chance is close to zero, but if they’reall enrolled in a class and there’s an exam that day, the probability is closeto 1.  Some people argue againstevolution by saying the creation of complex organic molecules by chance is nearzero, except chemical reactions aren't random.

Let’s not forget poor memory and fakery. There have notbeen enough bridge hands dealt in history to have come up with a perfect deal(each player gets 13 cards of one suit). Claims to the contrary are almostcertainly due to faulty recall or failure to shuffle the deck properly.

Discoveries in Biology

Instrumentation and Medical Techniques

The microscope

Seeing Within the Body

Cholera and its Aftermath

What causes disease?

Why Did These Developments Come So Late In History?

The Babylonians could have measured blood pressure orinvented the stethoscope, so why did it take so long?

Stimuli for invention

Poor optics were a real bottleneck

Antisepsis and anesthesia require some fairly advancedchemistry


Return to Outline Index
Return to Professor Dutch's Home Page

Created 24 October 2001, Last Update 11 January 2020